May 20, 2025
Middle East Escalation
CNN reports suggest Israel may be preparing a military strike on Iran, raising concerns of a diplomatic rift with the Trump administration. Separately, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated Israel would “take Gaza,” a declaration met with silence at the Monday White House briefing.
White House & Defense Initiatives
Trump Unveils “Golden Dome” Defense System
President Trump formally announced the launch of the “Golden Dome” national defense program—envisioned as a next-generation protective shield for the United States and allied territories.
Key details:
• Trump was joined by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Space Force Vice Chief of Operations Michael Guetlein (who will lead the initiative), and Senators Jim Banks, Kevin Cramer, and Dan Sullivan.
• Trump confirmed he had selected the “architecture” for the system and that Canada had expressed interest in joining.
• He stated the system should be fully operational by the end of his term, with a projected timeline of just under three years.
• The program will be funded through a proposed $25 billion allocation in an upcoming defense bill, with a total estimated cost of $175 billion.
• Trump called it “very protective,” and emphasized its role in ensuring national security.
Tax Reform Push
President Trump also visited Capitol Hill today to rally support for a new tax bill. Markets remain watchful, as the bill’s impact on deficit projections could influence bond yields and equity valuations.
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Administration Engagements
Vice President JD Vance to Address Naval Academy
Vice President JD Vance will deliver the commencement address at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland, on Friday, May 23, 2025, beginning at 10:00 AM. The event will be livestreamed.
Presidential Delegation to Ecuador
President Trump has appointed a Presidential Delegation to Quito, Ecuador for the May 24 inauguration of President Daniel Noboa.
• The delegation will be led by U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
• The move underscores U.S. recognition of Ecuador’s democratic transition and continued hemispheric engagement.
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State Department & Foreign Policy Framework
Secretary Rubio Testifies on FY26 Budget
Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared before the Senate Appropriations Committee to present his vision for a restructured, more responsive U.S. foreign policy apparatus.
Key messages:
• Consolidation of U.S. foreign policy tools under the State Department and regional bureaus.
• Empowering embassies to drive policy from the ground up, especially in high-stakes environments like Syria.
• Elimination of bureaucratic gridlock, with a focus on fast, field-informed decisions.
• Aid as a strategic tool—“The best foreign aid is foreign aid that ends,” Rubio said, referencing South Korea as a model.
• Introduction of flexible funding tools:
• Global Health Programs Account
• Consolidated Humanitarian Assistance Account
• America First Opportunity Fund, designed for nimble, crisis-responsive investments.
Rubio stressed the importance of U.S. aid being coordinated, targeted, and driven by frontline diplomatic insight.
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U.S.–Türkiye Strategic Dialogue
Joint Statement on Syria Working Group
Following high-level meetings in Washington, the U.S. and Türkiye issued a joint statement reaffirming their commitment to a stable, unified Syria, with emphasis on counterterrorism, sanctions relief, and refugee return.
Landau-Yilmaz Meeting
Deputy Secretary Christopher Landau met with Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Dr. Nuh Yılmaz to underscore a “new era” in bilateral cooperation, highlighting peace, commerce, and synchronized regional strategies.
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Trade & UK Political Dynamics
U.S.–UK trade negotiations continue amid political turbulence in London. Labour leader Keir Starmer is under fire from UK media and parliamentary allies for allegedly abandoning core Brexit positions. A New York Times report characterizes his shift as a “sellout,” complicating the outlook for future transatlantic trade alignment.
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Technology and Market Insights
• NVIDIA continues upward momentum following the relaxation of chip export restrictions. Earnings are expected on May 28.
• Microsoft reported strong earnings and reaffirmed long-term investment in semiconductor development.
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Nonproliferation & International Treaties
Kiribati Joins Biological Weapons Convention (BWC)
The United States congratulated Kiribati for joining the Biological Weapons Convention—making it the final Asia-Pacific nation to accede to the treaty.
• The announcement coincides with the BWC’s 50th anniversary.
• State Department Spokesperson Tammy Bruce emphasized the move strengthens global security and urged remaining non-signatories to join the Convention without delay.
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Market Snapshot & Economic Outlook
• Markets: Closed slightly down amid global uncertainty
• Bonds: Yields stable as investors monitor fiscal and security developments
• Next major data release: U.S. Jobs Report, early June
Main Stories Jan 16 Daily
With Focus on Blinken in Davos
World Economic Forum Davos, Switzerland government, business, civil society
Blinken Soil Speech
Secretary Blinken made remarks today at the World Economic Forum, saying, soil is at the root of pressing national security challenges, “without good soil, crops fail, prices rise, people go hungry, eroding soil also worsens the impacts of droughts, floods, of other climate-driven extreme weather. 700 million people do not know if they will have enough food tomorrow.” Blinken spoke about the instability of hunger causing migrations, straining ethnic tensions, as competition grows for limited resources. He implicated Russia in contributing to world hunger with its attacks on Ukraine’s “fields, granaries, on ports in Ukraine.”, Russian attacks on ukraine disrupt food making it expensive and destroying productivity. Since 2021, Blinken said, the US has devoted $17.5 billion to provide for global sustenance, funding over 1/3rd of the World Food Programme’s budget.
(Blinken’s Davos Speech https://youtu.be/oSzJS8OI8XY?si=X9NJ2bAoXBxrjolm)
Blinken on Taiwan
In Blinken’s first interview since the Taiwan elections, and joint attacks on the Houthis, he appeared on CNBC and was interviewed by Andrew Sorkin. Blinken said, we congratulated the president-elect and the people of Taiwan for their “robust democracy.” Cross strait relations we are intently focused on peace, stability and no change to the status quo. With 50% of the world’s commerce coming through the strait and the vital semiconductors made on Taiwan, any disruption is a problem for everyone. He called China’s one China policy approach counterproductive to their interests. He reiterated the long held status quo US policy position that “we do not support independence’ for Taiwan, while we support democracy and do not support China absorbing Taiwan. Blinken also spoke of addressing the fundamental issues and a future with a Palestinian state and the normalization of Israel. He spoke on Ukraine “we need to make sure that with Congress we get the supplemental funding” and without it we have a real problem for Ukraine. $50 billion of which would be sent to procure defense items in the United States. Russia continues to suffer strategic failure in Ukraine.” Without our continued support Russia will go after other countries and if NATO, we will be assisting them. (Blinken CNBC Interview https://youtu.be/WOynZ0tG26k?si=ly5RQs8T_Isb86Xc)
Intel, Semiconductors
Chip makers, Intel, Qualcomm and many others had representatives in Davos today. Intel’s Chief Executive Officer, Pat Gelsinger spoke to Bloomberg Surveillance from Davos this morning. Gelsinger, saying it is 30-40% cheaper to build in Asia than in Europe or the United States due to supply chain fragility and labor market differences, the US and the European Chips act is addressing this to close the competitive gap and build resilient supply chains in Europe and the US. Intel is building in Germany and they are talking to major firms about supplying them. He said while it is not industry practice to say who they are working with, they have three major companies in conversation and their test chips will be in the factory within a few months.
(Gelsinger’s Interview https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-01-16/intel-ceo-says-chips-act-is-critical-for-the-future-video)
Red Sea
Today in the Red Sea, Greek ship, Zografia, was hit by a Houthi missile while traveling 76 miles northwest of Al-Saleef, Yemen (source: Ambrey Analytics.) US says it hit 4 Houthi sites yesterday.
The US, UK, and the coalition as well as Iran want deescalation, but also want influence. The Houthis, if they continue to a greater extent, could risk loss of a ceasefire with Saudi Arabia that has been informal and is in talks to formalize.
So this attack is in itself not significant and remains in line with expectations and the number of attacks remain small versus the quantity of Red Sea shipping activity. Even while risks remain small, majorUS and European carriers have shifted over for insurance and reputation reasons, but remaining shipping is robust and the calculus is the cost to divert and low risk of attack make continuing worthwhile. The cost of rerouting is harder on some than others. The US and europeans are more able to pivot and to get better contracts without price gauging. The ships you will see getting attacked will have less and less impact on markets as time wears on. It will be smaller guys in the supply chain simply won’t withdraw or impact at scale.
The Houthis, are unlike Hezbollah, and act independently, while being backed by Iran which shares intelligence and provides weapons. They are not a proxy like Hezbollah. Iran has in its playbook the formula to fund the monster, and let the monster loose do do the damaging things one might expect, the most recent example the Hamas attacks on Israel.
“The US said on Tuesday that analysis from the weapons it seized from a ship near the Yemen coast suggested the Houthis had been using the same kind of weapons in their Red Sea attacks.
The seizure took place on 11 January near the coast of Somalia – the same day as the first US-UK airstrikes.
Cruise and ballistic missile components were among the items found on a ship, as well as parts for air defence equipment.
“This is the first seizure of lethal, Iranian-supplied advanced conventional weapons (ACW) to the Houthis since the beginning of Houthi attacks against merchant ships in November 2023,” US Central Command said in a statement.
Iran Ballistic Missile Strike on Iraq
At the same time we have an Iranian guard ballistic missile attack near US consulate in Erbil targeting “Israeli spies.” Iraq has reacted by recalling its ambassador from Iran and by denying Iranian claim as nonsense. Baghdad is so Shia so…
This will be nominal. There will be gestures.
Additional Davos meetings for Blinken
Secretary Blinken met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, discussing the importance to continue to support Ukraine. Humanitarian assistance to Palestinians in Gaza, prevention of spreading conflict, release of hostages held by Hamas, and a path to a Palestinian state. von Der Leyen emphasized importance of freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.
Secretary Blinken and National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, met with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky in Davos Switzerland. They discussed the economy of Ukraine, private sector investment, corruption reform, and heading toward future integration into EU and NATO.
Secretary Blinken met with Rwandan President Kagame and discussed how they might work together to ease tension and resolve conflicts with all parties in the Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo.
US Elections
Bitter weather brought poor turnout in Iowa for the caucuses, except for Trump’s base which came out with strong loyal supporters facing zero temps to show him wining 51% of the votes cast. DeSantis came in second with 21% of the votes. Nikki Haley took 19% of the vote, and Vivek ramiswarmy suspended his campaign after coming in 4th. Upcoming primaries in New hampshire could have a strong second for Haley with voters of both parties permitted to vote.
Acting Agency Leaders in the Biden Administration
From White House officials: President Joe Biden announced acting agency leadership across the administration, primarily civil servants, who will temporarily lead federal agencies while Cabinet nominees continue moving through the confirmation process.
Central Intelligence Agency, David Cohen
Department of Defense, David Norquist
Department of Energy, David Huizenga
Department of Health and Human Services, Norris Cochran
Department of Homeland Security, David Pekoske
Department of Justice, Monty Wilkinson
Department of Labor, Al Stewart
Department of State, Dan Smith
Department of Treasury, Andy Baukol
Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Lora Shiao
General Services Administration, Katy Kale
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Steve Jurczyk
National Endowment for the Arts, Ann Eilers
National Endowment for the Humanities, Adam Wolfson
Office of Management and Budget, Rob Fairweather
Office of National Drug Control Policy, Regina LaBelle
Office of Personnel Management, Kathy McGettigan
Small Business Administration, Tami Perriello
Social Security Administration, Andrew Saul
U.S. Agency for International Development, Gloria Steele
U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, Dev Jagadesan
U.S. Mission to the United Nations, Rich Mills
Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, Maria Pagan
Gumbo Diplomacy with Gerontocracy: Biden-Harris Transition Names National Security Nominees in Press Conference
As the Dow Jones hits a new record high, surpassing 30,000, and the President offers his thought, President-Elect Biden names key members of his national security team, “it’s a team that reflects the fact that America is back.” Notably present some old folks. Notably absent, a defence secretary.
Old Yellen, Janet Yellen is Biden’s pick for Treasury Secretary.
Another oldie, John Kerry, takes the stage alongside climate change, the new star of national security with President-Elect Biden announcing, “for the first time ever there will be a principal on the national security council who can make sure climate change is on the agenda in the Situation Room.” Kerry is named Special Envoy on Climate Change. Kerry says, the Paris Accord will not be enough, “to end this crisis the whole world must come together.”
And Gumbo will be on the menu somewhere, with Linda Thomas-Greenfield chosen to be US Ambassador to the UN, “America is back. Multilateralism is back. Diplomacy is back” Mr President-Elect I heard you say all politics is personal…”
“In my 35 years in foreign service across 4 continents, I put a cajun spin on it. I called it Gumbo Diplomacy. Wherever I was posted around the world I’d invite people of different backgrounds and beliefs to help me make a roux and chop onions for the holy trinity and make homemade gumbo. It was my way of breaking down barriers, connecting with people, and starting to see each other on a human level. A bit of lagniappe (Lanny-yap) is what we say in Louisiana.” Lagniappe is a small gift to a customer, given after a purchase.
National Security Advisor pick is Jake Sullivan, “I will work relentlessly…to keep our country and our people safe.” We will be vigilant in the face of enduring threats…but you have also tasked us with reimagining our national security” in a multitude of threats. With a Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security.
Avril Haines will lead the intelligence community.
Alejandro Mayorías has secretary of Department of Homeland Security.
Sunday Biden announced his choice for Secretary of State, centrist, Tony Blinken, his long time foreign policy advisor from Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the Obama White House. His current role as a strategic consultant draws on his powerful contact book to assist corporations. He co-started West-Ex, then went to Pine Island.
Peter Navarro Press Gaggle on Bolton Book, “Big Lie Bolton, Book Deal Bolton”
“My take on him is Big Lie Bolton, it’s Book Deal Bolton, he is doing it for the money, that is pretty clear, and my view is it the Washington’s swamps equivalent of revenge porn. He got fired because he did not obey the chain of command, because his views were totally out of sync with President Donald J. Trump with respect to how to handle international affairs, and he’s basically breaking all manner of tradition in terms of issuing a book at this stage, and he will make a bunch of money. Here’s the point, folks: He talks about the pattern of behavior with the president. Well, the pattern of behavior of John Book Deal Bolton is to go into an administration, advance his own agenda, and when he gets fired from that administration or leaves like he did in the Bush administration, he leaves and then criticizes the people he left behind who gave him the job. He did that with the Bush administration after he helped get the Bush administration into the Iraq War by pushing the big lie that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. That’s the pattern.”
Parliament Online
WHO, What Happens After The Curve Peaks? The Strategy to Combat Coronavirus. Calls for Unity to Succeed.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/who-calls-unity-fight-covid-19-answers-what-happens-after-kate-jones/
Track and Trace, Test, Innovation, Tailored to the Community intervention, Continued Critical Care Alongside Coronavirus Treatments.
President’s Schedule Monday 3/30/20
Breaking: PM Boris Johnson Positive Covid-19
Breaking: Downing Street: Prime Minister Boris Johnson has tested positive for Covid-19 after mild symptoms. The PM is self-isolating.
